Alex Castellanos says the bigger risk for the GOP next week is not a “blue wave” but frustrated Republicans and independents not turning out.
A veteran Republican campaign strategist has warned that Donald Trump’s party faces a threat from its own side as voters head to the polls in next week’s midterm elections. Alex Castellanos, who has worked on six Republican presidential campaigns, says the biggest concern this year is not a “blue wave” but a phenomenon he has dubbed the “Red Scream”. According to Axios, he believes “Republicans and independents are going to be screaming for attention, and many of them, including those who voted for Trump, may show their frustration by not showing up.” The midterms are on 3 November.
The president’s push
Mr Trump is criss-crossing the country to try to rally voters behind GOP candidates who are, in many cases, less popular, and who were hand-picked by him in primary contests. His party is trying to defy history in November despite his low approval rating, which has rebounded slightly to 40% in polls released this week. A rolling tracker of registered voters by Civiqs puts his approval underwater in almost every battleground state.
The Senate battlegrounds
The Cook Political Report lists seven Senate races as toss-ups: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. Democrats need to flip four Republican-held seats to win control of the Senate. Their best prospects are North Carolina, Texas, Ohio and Alaska.
Civiqs data, as reported, shows the share of registered voters who disapprove of Mr Trump’s performance in the toss-up states:
| State | Disapprove of Trump (all registered voters) |
|---|---|
| Maine | 61% |
| Michigan | 59% |
| Ohio | 56% |
| Texas | 56% |
| Iowa | 55% |
| Alaska | 53% |
| Kansas | 45% |
Maine is the highest and Kansas the lowest.
Doubts inside the party
Double-digit percentages of Republicans in the same states disapprove of his job performance. That could be especially damaging in Ohio, where 14% of Republicans disapprove. Mr Trump is trying to keep the seat Republican by tying the incumbent, John Husted, closely to himself, and he has won the state three times in presidential races. In Texas, 13% of Republicans disapprove of Mr Trump and of his hand-picked Senate candidate, Ken Paxton. The figure is also 13% in Michigan, where the former Republican congressman Mike Rogers is running against the Democrat Abdul El-Sayed.
The numbers are slightly better for him in Alaska and Maine, at 12% each, and in Kansas and Iowa, where only 10% of Republicans disapprove.
Among Republicans, voters aged 18 to 34 gave Mr Trump his lowest approval rating, at 63%, according to the source. Within that age group, 21% disapproved and 16% said they neither approved nor disapproved.
What the figures do and do not show
Disapproval of the president is not the same as an intention to stay at home. The warning of a “Red Scream” is Mr Castellanos’s prediction, not a measured trend, and the source cites no polling on turnout intentions.
