The prime minister has told voters to choose him or risk nuclear annihilation, and is reported to have pressed the military and Donald Trump for action against Iran. Tuesday’s vote is too close to call, and neither bloc is on course for a majority.
Benjamin Netanyahu has sharpened his rhetoric on Iran in the final days before Israel’s election on Tuesday. He is also reported to have pressed the military to act against Tehran, as polls suggest his coalition narrowly trails the opposition. He posted an AI-generated image of a nuclear mushroom cloud over Tel Aviv. Reports of a clash with the armed forces chief of staff, Lt Gen Eyal Zamir, have been denied by the prime minister and the defence ministry.
The campaign message
In a social media post about Iran’s nuclear programme, Mr Netanyahu wrote: “Anyone who cares about their own physical existence, that of their family, and their loved ones should have a trembling hand before voting for [the opposition].”
He told Channel 14, which has acted as his leading cheerleader in the Israeli media: “There is a single fundamental issue here – our existence.” He described the opposition bloc as the “left” in alliance with Palestinians, and as enemies of the country. “We see what is happening in Europe. The alliance between the left and Islam might destroy the state of Israel,” he said.
The tone contrasts with his triumphalism after earlier wars with Iran. In March he said Israeli and US strikes had destroyed Iran’s ability to enrich uranium and produce ballistic missiles. In 2025 he claimed a “historic victory” that would stand for generations. The source says his return to fear-based tactics, after unexpected losses for far-right allies in Serbia and Brazil, has raised questions about whether he may finally be on the ropes.
Reported clash with the military
Israel’s Channel 12 reported that Mr Netanyahu and Lt Gen Zamir clashed in recent days over a directive that could “potentially spark an immediate conflagration with Iran at a very sensitive juncture”, by prompting a miscalculation by Iran. Lt Gen Zamir is said to have asked for the directive, whose details were not given, to be put to him in writing. The research notes, citing Anadolu, say he reportedly wanted signed documentation of the legal authorisation, and the reports do not establish that an unlawful order was issued. Mr Netanyahu denied the report, and the defence ministry later denied any intention to carry out military operations against Iran.
On Monday, CNN reported that Mr Netanyahu had tried to persuade Mr Trump to launch a renewed assault on Iran in recent weeks, resuming the war both leaders began in February. The report confirmed an earlier Financial Times account and said Mr Trump had ruled out any such action until next week’s US congressional elections. The Israel Defense Forces issued a statement that stopped well short of a denial, saying its decisions rested exclusively on “security, professional, objective and national considerations”.
CNN also reported, citing an Israeli security source, that Lt Gen Zamir warned US General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, that a new attack on Iran could interfere with the election and potentially force its postponement. It said his intervention was one reason Mr Trump declined to approve an immediate joint operation, and that Israeli officials were worried about defending against retaliation without American help, with Israel’s interceptor stocks strained by earlier fighting. Mr Netanyahu’s office rejected the reporting as inaccurate, and Defence Minister Israel Katz called it baseless. An ABC News report on 22 October quoted White House spokesperson Anna Kelly as saying the US would not attack Iran before the 3 November midterms, and Israeli sources said renewed joint operations were being considered afterwards. No attack has been approved for any date.
Gadi Eisenkot, the leader of the opposition bloc and Mr Netanyahu’s most likely challenger, said he had confidence in Lt Gen Zamir. “We won’t allow the IDF to be turned into a pawn in Netanyahu’s survival campaign,” said Mr Eisenkot, a retired general.
The polls and the coalition maths
Most polls suggest the mainly centre-right opposition bloc led by Mr Eisenkot will win more Knesset seats than Mr Netanyahu’s coalition, but neither can reach the 61 seats needed for a majority. The opposition could probably form a majority and topple him in coalition with parties representing Palestinians with Israeli citizenship, who make up roughly a fifth of the population. Conservatives inside Mr Eisenkot’s bloc have ruled that out, raising the prospect of a minority government, another election and a possible Netanyahu resurgence.
The research notes cite a Middle East Forum average of seven polls fielded between 7 and 21 October, giving 53 seats to Netanyahu-aligned parties, 53 to other opposition parties and 14 to Arab-led parties. An analysis of nine surveys from 20 to 23 October put his bloc anywhere between 48 and 62 seats. Channel 14 and i24NEWS projections generally put his coalition higher than Channel 12 and Maariv, and these are estimates, not predictions. A party must pass a 3.25% threshold to win seats.
The main opposition parties are right-wing or centre-right. They share Mr Netanyahu’s firm opposition to a Palestinian state and have largely backed the war in Gaza. The bloc is held together more by antipathy to Mr Netanyahu, who has dominated Israeli politics for three decades. The source says he has veered towards authoritarianism by seeking to limit judicial independence and turn the police and Shin Bet into political tools. He is on trial on corruption charges, and his legal jeopardy could increase if he loses power. Most polls have for more than two years suggested his coalition will lose its slim majority.
Trump’s endorsement
Mr Netanyahu has stressed the support of Mr Trump, who repeated his endorsement on Sunday: “When you go to the Polls please remember that Bibi has been an outstanding warrior prime minister!” Walla News reported that the repeat endorsement followed relentless pressure from Mr Netanyahu’s office. Mr Trump’s “total endorsement” on 18 October made no visible difference to the polls. In one survey, 64% of Israelis said it would not influence their vote, 17% said it made them less likely to back Mr Netanyahu, and 12% said it deepened their resolve to support Likud.
Sanctions, crypto and the economy
Mr Netanyahu has also forecast financial isolation, saying billions of dollars in annual US military aid would soon dry up. He drew a rare public rebuke from the Bank of Israel for repeatedly suggesting Israel could use cryptocurrencies to dodge escalating sanctions. “Cryptocurrencies cannot serve as a means to circumvent sanctions,” the bank said on Sunday evening. “The right course for the Israeli economy is to maintain economic relations with our primary trading partners and to focus on preventing sanctions and their negative impact on the economy.”
According to the notes, 109 economists and business leaders, including the former Bank of Israel governor Jacob Frenkel and the Nobel laureate Aaron Ciechanover, signed a warning on 25 October. They said serious financial sanctions could disrupt credit-card payments, online purchases, imports of medical equipment and workers’ overseas remittances, and that cryptocurrency could not replace relationships with established banks. Mr Netanyahu said on 24 October that he would consider the central bank’s objections but continue to make his own judgments. No government crypto scheme has been announced. Reuters reports that Britain, France and Canada announced restrictions on imports from West Bank settlements in September, which are not the same as the hypothetical banking sanctions he has discussed. A year ago he said Israel might need to become a militarised “super Sparta”, and backed off in the face of fierce criticism.
How the vote works
Most polling stations are open from 7am to 10pm on Tuesday 27 October. Voting at some military bases began on 21 October, with around 850 special polling stations for regular personnel and reservists, and voting at diplomatic missions ended on 16 October. Around 810,000 eligible Israelis live abroad, according to the Israel Democracy Institute, and most must return to vote. Official results are scheduled to be confirmed on 4 November, with an appeals deadline reported as 18 November.
