Channel 12’s projection gives Likud 24 seats to Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party’s 22. Neither bloc is shown to have a majority, and weeks of coalition talks are likely.
Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party will remain the largest in the Knesset, according to a national exit poll by Israel’s Channel 12. It projects Likud on 24 seats and Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, billed as Mr Netanyahu’s closest challenger, on 22. The figures are estimates, not counted votes or official allocations of seats. The election therefore has no clear winner, and weeks of jockeying to form a government are likely. Exit polls usually give a good indication of how people voted, but they can differ from the result.
What happens next
The final tally will probably be revealed by 30 October, with official results due on 4 November. If neither Mr Netanyahu’s bloc nor the opposition wins a majority, he stays on as caretaker prime minister while attempts are made to form a government. A majority in the 120-seat Knesset needs 61. No party has ever won a majority alone, so even the largest party needs partners, and Likud’s lead over Yashar does not automatically give him enough support to stay in office. The research notes say the largest party, the largest bloc and the candidate who can assemble support are not necessarily the same.
The process, according to Reuters and the Associated Press:
- The Central Elections Committee counts the votes and confirms which parties pass the 3.25% threshold.
- Official results are published, due on 4 November.
- President Isaac Herzog consults party representatives, who recommend their preferred candidate for prime minister.
- A candidate is tasked with forming a coalition, with 28 days and a possible 14-day extension.
- The Knesset must approve the new government. Until then, the outgoing one remains in a caretaker capacity.
Reuters says coalition talks can run for weeks after polls close.
A shift from the final polls
Several Israeli television polls before the vote had placed Yashar ahead of Likud. According to The Times of Israel, Channel 12 on 23 October had Likud on 21 and Yashar on 23, Channel 13 had 19 and 22, and Kan 11 had 20 and 22. These are opinion surveys, and the exit poll is a different measure, so the difference is not verified evidence of a change in votes.
Pre-election broadcaster polls put the two predominantly Arab parties on 14 to 16 seats combined. Channel 12’s final poll had the Joint List on nine and Ra’am on five. Palestinian citizens of Israel make up about a fifth of the population. Major opposition figures have ruled out formal coalition agreements with Arab-led parties, so those parties’ influence depends on the results and negotiations.
Record turnout and a fraud dispute
Turnout reached 55.7% by 4pm, with more than four million people having voted, the Central Elections Committee said. It was the highest at that stage of an election day and 8.2 percentage points above the equivalent point in November 2022, The Times of Israel reports. Turnout figures do not show which bloc benefited. The paper also reports that around 60,000 Israelis who live abroad voted, many returning through Ben Gurion Airport, as most Israelis overseas cannot vote without travelling home. People still queuing at 10pm could vote, and some stations had long queues, which could delay final figures.
Mr Netanyahu spent much of the day posting on social media that high Arab turnout was an “emergency” and a “matter of life or death” for the Israeli right. The Times of Israel reports that he claimed three senior figures linked to the Arab-majority Ra’am party had been arrested over suspected voter bribery. He urged supporters to vote and alleged that opponents were trying to steal the election. The Central Elections Committee rejected multiple allegations of misconduct and said voting would continue. These accusations should not be treated as established fraud without confirmed findings.
Israeli media also reported the arrest of a man suspected of approaching Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats party, while carrying a knife, The Times of Israel and The Guardian said. No charge, motive or confirmation that Mr Golan was the target has been reported.
The research notes could not verify the full set of broadcaster exit polls, so there is no full seat table and no reliable indication of whether either bloc reached 61. There is no official result confirming that Mr Netanyahu has secured another term.
