Health officials say flu is circulating earlier than in recent years, and the NHS’s national medical director has described the first signs of winter pressure on hospitals as “ominous”.
The NHS has urged eligible people across the UK to get their flu vaccine without delay, as figures show flu activity rising earlier than usual. UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) data shows flu test positivity in England reached 6.5% in the week ending 4 October, up from 5% the previous week. Flu attendances at A&E are already above the level expected for the time of year. Professor Frankie Swords, NHS England’s national medical director, said staff were seeing early signs of pressure.
What the figures show
The UKHSA warned this week that the flu season may be starting early. Its report, published on 8 October, found that flu activity in September was higher than in the same period of each of the past four winters. Overall activity nevertheless remained at baseline levels, and the early rise does not mean flu has reached its winter peak. Whether infections keep climbing through October and November will be important in determining the pressure on hospitals.
Young adults are driving much of the increase. Among 18 to 24-year-olds in England, influenza A test positivity reached 28.1% in the week ending 4 October, up from 24.4% the week before. These figures measure the proportion of tests returning a positive result, not the share of all young adults who are infected.
Other respiratory viruses are also circulating. COVID-19 test positivity rose from 7.9% to 9.1% over the same period, with hospitalisation rates also increasing. RSV activity remained relatively low.
‘Don’t wait for winter’
Professor Swords said more patients, including children, were arriving at A&E with flu and other respiratory viruses such as RSV and Covid-19. “Staff are already seeing the ominous early signs of pressure, with more patients coming to A&E with flu and other respiratory viruses than usual for this time of year, and unfortunately many people are still waiting longer than we would like them to,” he said.
“This is why it’s absolutely crucial to take up the offer of flu, RSV, COVID-19 and other vaccinations if you’re eligible, to protect yourself, your family and the public,” he added. “We all have our part to play, so please don’t wait for winter – come forward to your GP or pharmacy now and get protected.”
The UKHSA said: “If you’re eligible for a free flu vaccine, the advice is simple: don’t wait.” It added: “Given the early signs this season, getting protected now, rather than later, is the best way to guard against serious illness this winter.”
Officials say delaying leaves people exposed, because the vaccine usually takes up to 14 days to give full protection. The viruses it covers are updated each year, so annual vaccination is recommended for eligible groups.
How the rollout works
According to the NHS, flu typically peaks around December and January, which is why the vaccine is offered to older adults from October, so that protection is in place when the virus is most widespread. Flu usually circulates in children before adults, so the children’s programme began earlier, in September. Protection from the vaccine also lasts “much longer” in children, meaning an earlier start could reduce flu rates in older adults through indirect protection.
Eligible children, pregnant women and some adults were offered the vaccine from September, with other adult groups becoming eligible from October. The NHS aims to complete most vaccinations by the end of November, although the programme runs until March 2027.
For school-aged children, most vaccines are given in schools by local immunisation teams, and parents are asked to look out for consent forms and return them. Community clinics are available for those who miss school sessions. From 1 December 2026, school-aged children from Reception to Year 11 who were not vaccinated in school can also have the jab at a pharmacy.
Who can get a free NHS flu vaccine
The NHS says the vaccine is free for people who:
- are aged 65 or over, including those who will be 65 by 31 March 2027
- are aged 18 to 64 and have certain long-term health conditions
- are pregnant, at any stage of pregnancy
- live in a care home
- are the main carer for an older or disabled person, or receive a carer’s allowance
- live with someone who has a weakened immune system
- are aged 16 or over and sleeping rough or staying in a homeless hostel or night shelter
The NHS will contact people when they can book. The vaccine is available from GP surgeries or pharmacies offering the NHS service. Eligibility can be checked and appointments booked through the NHS App, online, or by contacting a GP practice or local pharmacy.
