More than 100,000 people whose asylum claims were rejected between 2010 and 2024 have not been recorded as leaving Britain, according to new analysis from the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, reigniting debate over the government’s ability to enforce removals.
The analysis found that 108,022 people refused protection over the period have no record of departure. Around 26,850 of those whose claims were rejected between 2010 and 2016 have remained in the country for at least a decade since first applying. Among those who first sought asylum in 2010, around 2,000 individuals — roughly one in four whose claims were rejected that year — had still not departed by March 2026.
The figures show a marked decline in removal rates over time. The proportion of rejected applicants recorded as leaving fell from 67 per cent in 2012, when 6,124 people departed, to just 33 per cent in 2018, when 2,328 left. By the end of 2025, the Migration Observatory estimates that around half of all applications submitted between 2010 and 2022 that ended in rejection had resulted in the applicant leaving Britain. Removal rates vary significantly by nationality, with Albanian and Brazilian nationals facing comparatively high likelihoods of removal, while Iranian, Iraqi and Turkish nationals see far fewer departures despite substantial numbers of rejected claims.
Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp criticised Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood over the findings, telling the Sunday Express: “This makes a mockery of immigration law when even failed asylum seekers, most of whom are illegal immigrants, get to stay. They all need to be kicked out immediately. If Shabana Mahmood was at all serious, then she would act now.” He argued that leaving the European Convention on Human Rights and exiting the Modern Slavery treaty would make removals easier, pledging that “the next Conservative Government will do” so “on day one.” Philp added that unsuccessful applicants sometimes receive taxpayer-funded accommodation, contributing to what he described as the £4 billion annual asylum budget, while contributing limited economic value given their skill levels and associated housing costs.
Reform UK’s home affairs spokesman Zia Yusuf was similarly critical, attributing the figures to long-term political failure. “It is outrageous that only around half of those whose claims have been rejected have actually been removed thanks to decades of complacency from the political establishment,” he said. “Successive Governments have allowed thousands of people with no legal right to be here to remain in the country. Reform UK would ensure they are swiftly detained and deported.”
The Home Office disputed the analysis as misleading, arguing the figures reflect people not recorded as having departed rather than a confirmed count of those still in the country. A spokesman said: “The figures reported by the Express are misleading. Immigration enforcement activity is at the highest level on record – with the largest number of raids, arrests and removals ever. Nearly 70,000 illegal migrants and foreign criminals returned since this Government took office up 41 per cent on the 21-month period before. But we must go further with sweeping reforms to track down and remove more.” Officials added that the figures “do not account for individuals who may have left voluntarily without being recorded or those who have since gained permission to stay, meaning it should be treated as an estimate rather than a definitive total.”
