US intelligence agencies believe Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, holds fewer reservations about pursuing a nuclear weapon than his late father, a shift officials say could strengthen the case for further American military action against Tehran.
Iran’s new Supreme Leader is considerably more willing to pursue a nuclear weapon than his predecessor, according to US intelligence assessments, a shift that raises the stakes as President Trump considers further military action against Tehran. Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei took power after his father, longtime leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed earlier in the conflict in an Israeli strike reportedly supported by US intelligence. According to The New York Times, officials now believe the younger Khamenei has fewer ideological objections to weaponisation and may favour a more advanced nuclear arsenal than his father was willing to consider.
A shift in ideological stance
For years, American officials judged Ali Khamenei’s religious ban on nuclear weapons to be genuine, even as Iran quietly expanded its nuclear infrastructure and preserved the technical option to build a weapon should it choose to do so. His fatwa never stopped Tehran from mastering the underlying technology, and hardliners within the regime have long argued Iran should retain the ability to assemble a bomb rapidly if circumstances demanded it.
Officials now believe Mojtaba Khamenei’s appetite for nuclear weapons extends further than his father’s. Where earlier intelligence suggested Iran had explored a crude, World War II-style device, the new Supreme Leader is thought to favour more sophisticated warheads compact enough to be mounted on long-range missiles.
Caveats around the intelligence
US officials have cautioned that much of the intelligence underpinning these assessments is based on intercepted communications and information gathered before the current conflict, with limited direct evidence of Mojtaba Khamenei’s intentions since he assumed the role of Supreme Leader. The new leader was reportedly wounded early in the war and has largely disappeared from public view since, said to be recovering from his injuries while remaining wary of becoming a target for further strikes. Officials also believe he has yet to establish the same degree of authority his father held over more than three decades in power.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has said communication with Mojtaba Khamenei is increasing daily, despite the Supreme Leader’s continued absence from public appearances.
Status of Iran’s nuclear programme
Despite the shift in leadership, US officials continue to assess that Iran has not restarted uranium enrichment or resumed weapons development since American airstrikes struck the country’s nuclear infrastructure. Instead, Tehran appears focused on protecting what remains of its programme, particularly the heavily fortified underground facility known as Pickaxe Mountain.
US officials say Iran has moved at least some uranium enrichment centrifuges into the site, which lies deep beneath a mountain in central Iran and is believed to be beyond the reach of America’s most powerful conventional bunker-busting weapons. Intelligence officials believe this movement of equipment is primarily intended to protect the centrifuges from future airstrikes, rather than evidence that enrichment activity has resumed. Israeli intelligence reportedly tracked the equipment as it was relocated, though Washington’s assessment remains that the goal is to shield critical assets rather than restart enrichment.
The International Atomic Energy Agency has never been granted access to inspect Pickaxe Mountain, meaning the facility’s exact purpose and contents remain unverified by international monitors. Before the war, the IAEA estimated Iran held around 441kg of uranium enriched to 60% purity, material that could be further enriched to weapons-grade level should Tehran decide to pursue that path. Analysts note that any decision to produce a functioning nuclear weapon would still require a political decision by Iran’s leadership, further enrichment to roughly 90% purity, weaponisation, and integration onto a missile system, a process likely to take months or longer even if pursued.
Tehran has reportedly reinforced the area around Pickaxe Mountain with additional ground forces, amid concerns within Iran that the US could attempt a commando raid on the site rather than relying solely on airstrikes.
Background to the current strikes
Concerns over a possible raid stem partly from events in June 2025, when Trump ordered strikes on Iran’s three most significant nuclear sites. B-2 stealth bombers dropped bunker-busting bombs on the Fordo and Natanz facilities, while Tomahawk missiles struck Isfahan. Trump declared Iran’s nuclear programme destroyed following the strikes, though US intelligence agencies reportedly assessed privately that the damage had only delayed the programme by a matter of months rather than eliminating it entirely.
That delay has been extended largely because Iran chose not to rebuild damaged facilities or resume enrichment elsewhere. Crucially, Iran’s existing stockpile of highly enriched uranium survived the strikes intact, leaving much of the raw material needed for a weapon still within reach should Tehran’s leadership decide to move forward.
What officials fear next
US officials say the shift in leadership, and the possibility that hardliners now hold a stronger internal argument for pursuing a nuclear deterrent, could complicate efforts to prevent Iran from eventually building a weapon. Officials suggest the war itself may have strengthened the case made by hawkish figures within the regime, that only a credible nuclear deterrent can prevent future strikes or attempts to remove the government from power. If that assessment proves accurate, a military campaign intended to end Iran’s nuclear ambitions may instead have sharpened Tehran’s determination to acquire the very weapon Washington has spent decades trying to prevent it from obtaining.
