Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has said US crypto regulation will move forward whether or not the Clarity Act clears the Senate on 15 September, even as lobbying spending on the bill tops $190 million and the SEC advances its own separate regulatory framework for digital assets.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong says the Clarity Act, which seeks to establish a federal regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States, is likely to pass, citing broad support from crypto firms, law enforcement groups and several banks. Speaking to CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Thursday, Armstrong said the legislation was ready to be supported by the Senate, adding that people he has spoken with are on board with it. However, he suggested that even if the bill fails to pass, the crypto sector will still gain greater regulatory clarity through other means.
What Armstrong said about the vote
“Frankly, if it doesn’t pass, it’s also going to be a good outcome because the SEC and the CFTC have said that they’re ready to publish rulemaking, and we’re going to get regulatory clarity one way or another on the 15th or the day or two after,” Armstrong said.
Coinbase has been among the most vocal supporters of the Clarity Act, which aims to divide oversight of digital assets between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The bill is scheduled for a Senate vote on 15 September, having passed the House of Representatives last July after being introduced in May 2025.
The fight for 60 votes
Securing the 60 votes needed to advance the bill in the Senate has emerged as the central challenge, with ethics provisions among the issues still being negotiated. Democratic Senator Ruben Gallego of Arizona, speaking at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium last month, said: “The way to get 60 votes is with good ethics legislation as well as rounding out some of the things that are still outstanding.”
Armstrong said the details of the ethics provisions were still being worked through, but described negotiators as “very close to a solution” ahead of the vote. He characterised the potential passage of the Clarity Act as a “regulatory checkbox” that could help unlock institutional capital and pave the way for products such as tokenised equities in the US, calling it “a big milestone” for the industry.
Despite Armstrong’s optimism, the Senate battle appears considerably closer than his comments suggest. The crypto industry’s lobbying campaign has intensified sharply ahead of the vote, with industry groups spending millions on advertising, opinion pieces and grassroots campaigns targeting senators in their home states. Together, the crypto industry and banking sector have spent more than $190 million on political activity connected to the bill, making the Clarity Act one of the most heavily lobbied pieces of financial regulation currently before Congress.
Opposition to the bill spans both parties rather than falling along strictly partisan lines. Some opponents are demanding stronger safeguards against money laundering, as well as restrictions relating to President Donald Trump’s own cryptocurrency interests. The Independent Community Bankers of America has separately lobbied against the legislation, warning that the proposed framework could allow crypto companies to compete directly with traditional bank deposits.
Adding to the uncertainty, the House of Representatives is planning an early September recess, leaving lawmakers with only a brief legislative window before the midterm election period begins. Even should the Senate pass the bill, the compressed House schedule could make it difficult to complete the remaining legislative steps before the election, raising the possibility that a Senate vote could carry political significance even if the legislation ultimately fails to become law this year.
The SEC’s parallel regulatory push
Armstrong’s suggestion that regulatory clarity could arrive regardless of the Clarity Act’s fate is already being borne out. On 18 August, the SEC announced it had proposed “Regulation Crypto Assets,” a new securities framework specifically designed for certain crypto-asset investment contracts. The proposal includes a conditional safe harbour, under which qualifying crypto assets could fall outside the statutory definition of a security, provided specified conditions are met, alongside new exemptions for certain crypto-asset offerings, with issuers required to provide specified disclosures to investors.
The SEC has said the proposal is intended to reduce incentives for crypto companies to operate offshore, and to create clearer routes for raising capital within the United States. The public consultation period runs for 60 days following publication in the Federal Register, meaning the SEC’s regulatory process continues to move forward independently of whatever happens with the Clarity Act vote.
Coinbase’s shift beyond crypto trading
Beyond the regulatory debate, Coinbase has been actively diversifying its business away from traditional crypto spot trading, which Armstrong said has “basically been down for the last year.” According to the company’s latest results, 88% of Coinbase’s net revenue in the second quarter came from sources other than Bitcoin spot trading. Subscription and services revenue reached $555 million, representing 48% of net revenue, its highest proportion to date.
Coinbase’s average USDC balance held across its products reached a record $20 billion during the quarter, equivalent to more than 30% of all USDC in circulation by the end of the period. The company’s crypto trading market share also reached a record 10.3% in Q2, up from 9.1% in Q1, marking its third consecutive quarter of market share gains despite weaker overall market activity.
Growth in prediction markets
One notable area of growth has been prediction markets. Coinbase’s prediction-market contracts and associated revenue increased 106% quarter-over-quarter during Q2, crossing $100 million in annualised revenue. A new crypto-binaries product launched late in the quarter produced approximately three times the number of daily traders and four times the daily revenue compared with the product’s average performance in May. This growth forms part of Coinbase’s broader “Everything Exchange” strategy, under which the company is seeking to become a multi-asset financial platform rather than remain primarily a cryptocurrency exchange.
Expansion into traditional financial products
On 3 September, Coinbase submitted registration documents to the SEC seeking approval to offer equity perpetuals, derivatives without a fixed expiration date that can be used for speculation or hedging purposes. The filing illustrates Coinbase’s ambition to expand into more traditional financial products at the same time that Washington continues to debate the regulatory framework governing digital assets more broadly.
Financial results
Coinbase reported second-quarter results in July showing revenue falling to $1.2 billion, down from $1.5 billion a year earlier, alongside a net loss of $359.5 million, compared with a profit of $1.43 billion in the same period the previous year. The company missed Wall Street’s expectations for both revenue and earnings for a third consecutive quarter. Transaction revenue for the quarter stood at $599 million, down from the previous year, while consumer crypto spot trading volume fell 38% year-over-year, underlining the rationale behind the company’s accelerating diversification strategy.
Despite the net loss, Coinbase recorded its 14th consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA, at approximately $208 million. Coinbase shares have fallen nearly 23% so far this year, with Armstrong attributing some of the pressure on the company’s financials to the prolonged downturn in crypto spot trading.
International expansion
Coinbase has also been expanding its presence overseas, establishing operations in the United Arab Emirates and Singapore, which Armstrong described as the company’s Asia hub. He said establishing these international hubs had proven important during periods when the US regulatory environment was less permissive, adding that Coinbase continues to look to expand in markets where governments are more receptive to crypto more broadly. “We basically just try to grow when we have windows and we try to bide our time in the areas where we’re sensing hostility,” Armstrong said.
