Keir Starmer is fighting for his political life on two fronts simultaneously — telling loyal ministers he will battle any leadership challenge to the last while European Commission officials privately question whether there is any point negotiating a Brexit reset deal with a prime minister who could be gone within months.
Diplomatic sources told the Daily Mail that Brussels is resisting setting a date for talks on Sir Keir’s flagship EU relationship reset because of genuine doubts about his political survival. “There is some goodwill towards him because he has shown he is sincere about thawing relations after Brexit and he has proved a reliable partner on Ukraine,” one source said. “But at the same time, everyone can see he has big domestic problems. People are asking, what is the point of doing a deal with someone who could be gone in a few months? Why not wait for the next guy?”
Aides had hoped to schedule a UK-EU summit around the tenth anniversary of the Brexit referendum on 23 June, then pushed for July, but officials have so far been unable to agree a date amid growing speculation the meeting could slip to autumn. Whitehall sources acknowledged the difficulty in fixing a date, with some suggesting Brussels is also using the delay as leverage in negotiations on contentious issues including a youth mobility scheme.
The paralysis in Brussels reflects a deeper dysfunction inside Whitehall itself. One minister told the Daily Mail that Sir Keir’s domestic weakness had triggered a “go slow” among civil servants who are waiting to see whether a leadership change brings a change of direction before committing to major initiatives.
On Monday, the Prime Minister summoned several dozen junior ministers considered loyal and delivered an unambiguous message. “If there is a contest, then I’m going to fight it. I’m not going to walk away. I am going to fight to win. I’ll be in it to win it,” he told them. Allies also briefed reporters that his wife Victoria had urged him to carry on, despite an estimated 100 Labour MPs calling on him to quit following last month’s catastrophic local election results.
The threat is coming from two directions. Andy Burnham’s supporters believe the Greater Manchester Mayor will launch a formal leadership challenge within weeks if he triumphs in next week’s Makerfield by-election, with allies saying he is determined to be in place as Labour leader in time for the party’s annual conference in Liverpool in September. Some expect Burnham to offer Sir Keir the foreign secretary brief in exchange for standing aside without a contest — a so-called coronation. Former health secretary Wes Streeting, however, has vowed he will trigger a full contest regardless.
Sir Keir’s allies are working to hold wavering MPs back from backing a challenge and are pointing to what they describe as Burnham’s difficulties on the campaign trail. The Greater Manchester Mayor has made a series of U-turns on immigration and trans rights and raised eyebrows last week when he refused to answer detailed questions about Labour’s fiscal rules in a BBC interview. “I’m not going to go through a discussion like an exam on the fiscal rules,” he said — a response that struck some observers as a significant liability for a man positioning himself as a credible alternative prime minister.
