Security analysts say Vladimir Putin may be preparing a coordinated hybrid assault on airports across the Baltic states, designed to sow confusion over Russian responsibility and fracture Nato unity, following a string of drone incursions and military confrontations across the alliance’s eastern flank.
Vladimir Putin could test Nato’s resolve with a “large-scale hybrid attack” targeting the Baltic region, according to security experts speaking to The Sun. The warning follows a chaotic 24-hour period in which Nato jets shot down a drone over Lithuania, a Russian frigate fired flares at a Danish military helicopter, and another drone washed up on a Polish beach. Analysts say the incidents reflect a deliberate strategy by Moscow to pressure the alliance into withdrawing support for Ukraine, with fears the campaign could ultimately fracture European solidarity altogether.
A pattern of escalating incidents
Nato fighter aircraft were scrambled overnight after a drone entered Lithuanian airspace, and the aircraft went on to destroy the drone near Pratkunai in central-southern Lithuania, triggering an emergency alert around Vilnius. The move marked a shift from routine monitoring of unidentified aerial intrusions to the direct use of force against an object inside Nato territory. The drone reportedly entered Lithuania from the direction of Belarus, Russia’s closest military ally, although its precise origin and the chain of responsibility have not been conclusively established.
Hours earlier, a Russian frigate operating near Denmark fired two flares at a Danish military Fennec helicopter that was carrying out surveillance, with one flare reportedly passing close to the aircraft. Denmark lodged a strong protest over the incident, while Russia disputed Copenhagen’s account and instead accused the helicopter of dangerous conduct.
Nato’s eastern flank has recorded at least a dozen drone alerts over the past two months. In August, Germany explicitly held Moscow responsible for a botched drone attack on a Ukrainian cargo plane at Leipzig/Halle airport, while Poland has pointed to a series of separate incidents involving suspected sabotage, drone activity and Russian missile activity near its airspace.
Estonia seen as most exposed
Edward Lucas, founder of the Baltic Internal Security Centre, told The Sun that Western allies had grown complacent about Putin’s ambitions. “We’ve been warned by our allies about the danger of Putin’s imperial dreams and his aim to try and restore the old Soviet Union,” he said. “And we were very complacent about it. Now we are getting wake up calls. And they’re alarming ones. This is all over the place. The front line runs right through the middle of Europe and into us here in Britain.”
Military analyst Michael Clarke told The Sun that Estonia was particularly vulnerable. “Estonia is the most vulnerable of all of the Baltic states,” he said. “An attack on Estonia in the next couple of months is entirely plausible and the forces there are on full alert for it.” Clarke added: “We’re building up to some sort of military confrontation.”
The UK currently stations a rapid response force of more than 1,000 troops, equipped with advanced military equipment, in Estonia. In July, the Ministry of Defence announced a new UK-Estonia defence roadmap intended to deepen military cooperation and reinforce Nato’s eastern flank. Moscow last week threatened a “devastating” response after Nato activated its Baltic air-policing mission to deter drone incursions near Estonian airspace.
The risk of a fractured Nato response
Nicu Popescu, a European security expert and former deputy prime minister of Moldova, told The Sun that the greatest danger may lie not in Russia’s military capability but in how Nato member states respond to an attack. “There could be a situation where an EU state is tested by Russia sparking a breakdown of solidarity throughout Europe,” he said. “The danger is in the grey zone. This includes a large-scale, hybrid attack on multiple airports across the Baltic region.”
He explained that such an attack risked provoking prolonged deliberation among Nato members over attribution and response, rather than unified action. “The risk is, this situation requires a response but the conversation in Europe turns to deliberation – was it Russia, how do you respond, when do you respond?” he said. “If some Nato states respond with support and others stall – then you are at risk of a fracture through Europe and Nato.” Popescu stressed that this multi-airport scenario remains an expert warning rather than a confirmed Russian plan, though he noted Moscow had already demonstrated its reach with attacks affecting Moldova, Poland and Romania.
In response, the European Commission has proposed a new security mechanism specifically aimed at addressing hybrid attacks that fall below the threshold of conventional warfare, covering areas such as drone incursions, sabotage, cyberattacks, arson and attacks on critical infrastructure. The aim is to provide European governments with a collective framework for response, rather than leaving individual countries to debate their reaction after each incident.
Threats against Poland
Tensions have also risen sharply around Poland. Nikolai Patrushev, a close Putin aide and former head of Russia’s FSB, said on Tuesday that Russia could destroy Poland within “two or three days” and would use its “entire arsenal” if a military confrontation occurred – though the remark was framed as a conditional warning rather than an announcement of an planned attack. His comments came after Poland responded to a Russian drone strike just two miles from its border on Sunday, an attack Kyiv suggested may have been targeting a earlier “diplomatic” train that had carried high-profile figures, including former UK prime minister Boris Johnson.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that further escalation could not be ruled out. “These coming weeks and months will be a time of very intensified actions on the Russian side, and unfortunately we cannot rule out that this escalation will also affect our territory,” he said. Several Nato political leaders and intelligence agencies have separately warned of a possible imminent escalation against Poland or one of the Baltic states.
Amid the rising tension, CIA Director John Ratcliffe made a surprise visit to Moscow on 25 August, during which he reportedly warned the Kremlin against attacking Nato member states.
Russia’s wider military build-up
Popescu said Moscow’s campaign served multiple purposes. “Moscow is clearly ramping up pressure on EU countries and societies – both in the quantity and aggression of its attacks,” he said. “They serve multiple purposes, economic, political and military. The implicit message is to threaten societies – to feed the sentiment that if you help Ukraine you become part of this war.”
The pressure campaign coincides with mounting strain on Ukraine’s air defences. Kyiv spent the summer striking Russian oil depots before shifting focus to a series of attacks that crippled Russia’s largest e-commerce platform, contributing to fuel shortages and wider economic disruption inside Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said Putin is planning to draft more than 300,000 additional troops to reinforce Russia’s push to seize the remainder of Donetsk. With Russia now producing more than 100 ballistic missiles a month, according to reports, Ukraine is seeking an additional 300 Patriot interceptor missiles from its partners ahead of winter, though supply is not guaranteed.
Russia has also begun deploying a high-speed jet variant of its Iranian-designed Shahed drone, named Geran-4 and Geran-5, capable of travelling almost 620 miles and carrying a 90kg payload while evading air defence systems, according to leaked Ukrainian government documents. Dozens of new drone launch sites have reportedly appeared along Russia’s border, with images showing storage capacity for more than 1,000 drones at a single base. European affairs expert Professor Anthony Glees has previously told The Sun that missiles launched from such sites could reach Nato territory “with the greatest of ease.”
‘You cannot assume your enemies think like you do’
Despite the scale of the threat, Popescu said he did not believe Russia could realistically overpower Nato or the wider international community. “There is no realistic scenario where Russia defeats the United Nations or Europe even without the US,” he said. “But you cannot assume your enemies have the same mental framework as you do. Russia might misjudge Europe’s resolve to fight – they may think Europe is weaker than it is.”
He said Europe now faced a delicate balancing act between resisting Russian pressure and avoiding further escalation, while maintaining support for Ukraine. “The Russian goal was never just Donbas – it was to occupy or control most of Ukraine and turn it into a country with no sovereign right,” Popescu said. “We might have a ceasefire but the Russian objectives will always be there and the threat will always be very high. We need to build Ukraine into a country that can resist this threat for decades ahead.”
