A new YouGov survey for Sky News and The Times shows Labour and Reform UK tied at 22% each, marking the first time Labour has matched or surpassed Reform in the polls since April 2025, shortly after Andy Burnham took over as Prime Minister.
Labour has drawn level with Reform UK in the polls for the first time in over a year, following Andy Burnham’s takeover as party leader and Prime Minister. A YouGov survey carried out for Sky News and The Times shows the two parties tied on 22% each, ending a period in which Reform had consistently led public opinion for a significant stretch of this parliament. The poll marks the first time Labour has been anything other than behind Reform UK since 14 April 2025.
The polling figures
The YouGov poll, conducted between 24 and 25 July, put Labour and Reform UK level on 22%, with the Conservatives close behind on 20%. The Liberal Democrats stood at 14%, the Greens on 13%, Restore Britain on 4%, the SNP on 3%, Plaid Cymru on 1%, and other parties collectively on 1%. The survey is among the first major voting intention polls to capture public opinion following Burnham’s move into Downing Street.
Despite the two parties being level, the result remains within the poll’s margin of error, meaning neither Labour nor Reform can currently be said to hold a statistically significant lead over the other.
A shift in fortunes
The latest figures represent Labour’s strongest showing in YouGov’s tracker since January 2026, following a prolonged decline in support earlier in the year. Reform UK, by contrast, has seen its advantage shrink considerably since peaking at 28% in May 2026, when the party held an 11-point lead over its nearest rival in the aftermath of local elections.
Separate polling released on the same day by More in Common also put Labour ahead of Reform, suggesting Burnham may be benefiting from an early post-takeover boost in support, although figures continue to vary between different pollsters.
A recent YouGov favourability poll further found that 38% of Britons view Burnham favourably, compared with 35% who view him unfavourably, giving him a net positive rating of +3, a stronger starting position than several recent prime ministers held on first entering Downing Street.
Burnham plays down the polling boost
Speaking ahead of the poll’s release, Burnham said he was not getting carried away by suggestions of a rise in support for his government. “I wouldn’t get carried away by any poll,” he said. “I’m pleased to have kind of made a start where hopefully I’ve connected with people, and I am talking a lot about Britain believing again and getting its hope back.”
