A new campaign puts the annual cost of membership at £39.3bn. That does not translate into a £6,500 bill per household, and the calculations have not been independently verified.
A claim that rejoining the EU would cost every UK household £6,500 has surfaced as Andy Burnham prepares to meet European leaders in Brussels. It follows the launch on 13 November of a campaign called Stay Out, which estimates that membership would cost the UK £39.3bn a year, or about £750m a week. It is not clear how the £6,500 figure was calculated or what period it covers. Mr Burnham has said he hopes Britain will one day rejoin, and will set out “options” after the summit, due on Friday 20 November.
Where the figure comes from
Stay Out is chaired by Oliver Lewis, a former deputy government Brexit negotiator who also worked on the Vote Leave campaign. Former Conservative cabinet minister Michael Gove has endorsed it, according to The Times. The group’s £39.3bn estimate rests on assumptions about the EU’s proposed 2028-2034 budget, the loss of Britain’s former rebate and additional borrowing costs. It is neither an official EU demand nor a Treasury forecast, and its calculations have not been independently verified. The Times noted that it leaves out money the EU could spend in Britain, and any economic effects on trade, investment and productivity.
Dividing £39.3bn equally between about 28 million UK households gives roughly £1,400 per household a year. That is an arithmetic illustration, not a tax bill, and it is far below £6,500.
Gross and net contributions
The campaign compares its estimate with Britain’s gross contribution of £19.1bn in 2016, before the rebate was applied. The Times reported that the contribution after the rebate was about £13.9bn, before counting EU spending returned to the UK. The campaign’s sums assume the rebate would not return. Michel Barnier, the EU’s former chief Brexit negotiator, has indicated it would not be available, ITV News reported on 8 November. That is a negotiating concern and not an agreed condition of re-entry.
The argument echoes a row from the 2016 referendum. The UK Statistics Authority criticised the “£350 million a week” claim because it ignored the rebate and money coming back to Britain.
What the EU is proposing
The European Council says the Commission has proposed a seven-year budget approaching €2 trillion, equal to 1.26% of the EU’s gross national income. Negotiations are continuing, and nothing has been adopted. A European Parliament research briefing published in November separates €1,613.8bn of proposed spending commitments, in constant 2025 prices, from €149.3bn for repaying pandemic recovery-fund debt. It does not establish what a returning Britain would pay.
The European Commission’s breakdown includes €865bn for regional development, €409bn for competitiveness and €49bn for education and democracy programmes. Any estimate of a UK share would also have to account for what Britain might receive.
The wider economic argument
Official analysis points to costs of staying out. The Office for Budget Responsibility continues to estimate that Brexit will reduce long-run UK productivity by 4% compared with remaining in the EU, in analysis updated in July 2026. A House of Commons Library briefing from September says studies put UK GDP between 2% and 8% below where it might otherwise have been, with differing methods and assumptions. It also cites Bloomberg Economics’ estimate of about £30bn a year in foregone tax revenue. That is modelling and not money paid directly by households.
None of this shows that rejoining would reverse the damage attributed to Brexit. It does show why comparing membership fees alone leaves out much of the economic picture.
Burnham’s position
Downing Street has reportedly said there is no fixed timetable for publishing Mr Burnham’s longer-term options. He has reaffirmed that the immediate summit is not about rejoining. Its priorities are agreements on food and agriculture, emissions trading and youth mobility.
Speaking on 14 November, Mr Burnham said Britain had lost more than it had gained through Brexit, according to The Guardian. He argued that easing agricultural trade barriers could help Welsh lamb and shellfish exporters and lower food costs. His government estimates the proposed agreements could lift UK economic output by about 0.4%, or around £17bn.
Full Fact said on 11 November that claims Mr Burnham had already decided to rejoin were false. He had expressed a personal wish for eventual membership, it said, but had ruled out proposing it during the current Parliament.
