The Makerfield by-election on 18 June is shaping up to be one of the most consequential votes in recent British political history — a contest that could determine who leads the Labour Party and, ultimately, who occupies Downing Street.
Andy Burnham, the widely popular Greater Manchester Mayor, is standing as Labour’s candidate in a seat engineered specifically to give him a path back into parliament. If he wins, he is widely expected to mount a challenge to Sir Keir Starmer’s beleaguered leadership — a prospect that has drawn national attention to what would ordinarily be a safe northern seat.
But Burnham faces a serious threat from Reform UK, whose candidate Robert Kenyon — a self-employed plumber who stood in Makerfield at the 2024 general election — has been polling within striking distance. And complicating matters further, Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain, whose candidate Rebecca Shepherd sits on seven per cent in the latest poll, risks splitting the right-wing vote at the worst possible moment for Reform.
The polls
The only constituency poll so far, conducted by Survation between 18 and 22 May among 504 adults, put Labour on 43 per cent, Reform on 40 per cent and Restore Britain on 7 per cent. The Liberal Democrats were on 4 per cent, the Greens on 3 per cent and the Conservatives on 2 per cent. The combined Reform and Restore vote would comfortably exceed Labour’s total — a fact that Reform has been pointing out loudly on the campaign trail.
The betting odds
William Hill odds as of 27 May show clear market expectation of a Labour win. Reform are 5/2, with Restore Britain at 8/1. The Greens and Conservatives are extreme outsiders at 250/1.
Who is standing?
Andy Burnham (Labour) is the former Health Secretary, Shadow Home Secretary and current Greater Manchester Mayor. Robert Kenyon (Reform UK) is a local plumber and returning candidate. Rebecca Shepherd (Restore Britain) is a businesswoman from the Wigan area. Sarah Wakefield (Green) is a Manchester City Council councillor, selected after the Greens’ original candidate Chris Kennedy withdrew. Jake Austin (Liberal Democrats) is a Stockport councillor who stood in the 2024 Greater Manchester mayoral election. Alan “Howlin” Laud Hope leads the Monster Raving Loony Party, which he inherited from its founder Screaming Lord Sutch. Count Binface, the satirical by-election perennial, is also standing.
The constituency also features candidates from the Libertarian Party, the Climate Party, the Count Binface Party and several independents.
With the Labour leadership in the balance and the right-wing vote divided, the result on 18 June could reshape British politics.
