Oil prices surged toward $100 a barrel on Monday after Israel defied Donald Trump’s calls for restraint and launched revenge strikes on Iranian military targets — including a petrochemical plant — in the most dangerous escalation of the Middle East conflict since a ceasefire was brokered in April.
Brent crude futures jumped $3.20, or 3.39 per cent, to $96.24 a barrel just after 4.30am UK time on Monday 8 June, according to the Express, while US crude futures rose $2.87, or 3.17 per cent, to $93.41 per barrel. The price surge erased Friday’s losses, which had come on hopes of de-escalation, and pushed Brent crude to its highest level since the current crisis began.
The immediate trigger was Israel’s decision to carry out strikes on Iranian military targets in the early hours of Monday, hours after Iran launched a barrage of missiles at northern Israel — all of which the Israel Defence Forces said were intercepted. Markets were further rattled by reports that Israeli strikes had hit Iran’s Karun petrochemical plant near Bandar-e-Mahshahr, with the Iranian state-linked Fars news agency reporting damage caused by an Israeli projectile.
The strikes came despite explicit warnings from Trump, who had said he would instruct Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to hold back from retaliatory action. Speaking to the Financial Times after Iran’s missile barrage on Sunday, Trump played down the impact on diplomatic efforts. “It’s not going to have any impact on the deal,” he said. “We’ll see how it ends up. But they were attacks that did not kick at all.” He added on Sunday that Iran’s strikes would not deter his efforts to broker a long-term peace agreement.
The broader context explains why oil markets are so sensitive to every development. The current conflict between the United States and Iran began on 28 February, when joint US-Israeli strikes were carried out on several key Iranian targets. Iran retaliated by striking sites across the Middle East and closing the Strait of Hormuz — the critical waterway through which 20 per cent of global oil trade passes. Oil prices have risen more than 50 per cent since March as a result of the sustained disruption to supply routes and the persistent threat of further escalation.
The attack on the Karun petrochemical facility adds a new and significant dimension to the conflict. Iran is a major oil producer and any sustained damage to its energy infrastructure — or further closures of the Strait of Hormuz — could push prices well beyond the $100 threshold that markets are now approaching for the first time since the crisis began.
