GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan says he is “skeptical” the agreement will bring significant relief, while six US senators have called for it to be reversed.
President Donald Trump’s agreement with Vladimir Putin to supply Russian diesel may do little to bring down prices, according to Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at the fuel-price tracker GasBuddy. Mr Trump announced the deal on Friday as diesel costs remain far above last year’s levels. In an analysis released on Monday, Mr De Haan said the plan “raises more questions than it answers”. Six US senators from both parties have also urged the president to reverse it.
The analyst’s warning
Mr De Haan said: “On the policy front, the Trump administration’s proposed diesel deal raises more questions than it answers, and I remain skeptical that it will deliver significant relief to the trucking industry and consumers who depend on diesel.”
According to GasBuddy, the average price of a gallon of diesel is about $6.25. That is 5.9 cents lower than a week ago but about $2.55 higher than a year ago, when the national average was near $3.70. In early September GasBuddy reported that diesel had reached $6 a gallon for the first time. Mr De Haan said then that record prices would affect “every cargo, shipment, every delivery Americans are taking” and were “likely to reignite inflation up and down the supply chain”.
The deal comes as the war with Iran enters its eighth month. It began in late February, and there is still no peace agreement. The midterm elections are approaching, and Mr Trump has been looking for ways to lower fuel prices.
What Mr Trump promised
Writing on Truth Social, Mr Trump said “Russia will immediately supply over 300,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel to the American and Global Marketplace, another 500,000 Tons during the month of November, and 1,000,000 Tons immediately thereafter”. He added that, “based on the condition of their Diesel Refineries”, Russia would then deliver 3,000,000 tons “within a short period of time”.
He said diesel prices would be “COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST!” and that “lower prices for Americans, especially our Great Farmers, Ranchers, and Truckers, is my Greatest Priority”.
Gaps in the announcement
The figures do not clearly add up. The first three quantities total 1.8 million tonnes, and it is unclear whether the later 3 million tonnes is part of that total or comes on top of it. If all four were additional, the maximum would be 4.8 million tonnes.
The announcement also does not say how much would reach the United States, because Mr Trump referred to both American and global markets. It identifies no binding purchase agreement, US importer, shipping schedule or price. The larger delivery depends on the condition of Russian refineries. These are gaps in the announcement rather than evidence that the deal has failed.
On the research notes’ illustrative conversion of 7.45 barrels per tonne, 4.8 million tonnes is about 35.8 million barrels. The US Energy Information Administration says the transport sector used about 2.94 million barrels a day of diesel and other distillate in 2025. The full commitment would therefore cover roughly 12 days of that use, and the first 300,000-tonne shipment less than a day. The Financial Times reported that even the full amount would be under 4% of global diesel demand over the period. These comparisons show scale, not how much would reach the US or how quickly.
Legal and political opposition
A bipartisan group of six senators has called for the agreement to be reversed immediately, the Associated Press reported on 12 October. Four Republicans, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Thom Tillis and John Curtis, joined two Democrats, Jeanne Shaheen and Richard Blumenthal.
They questioned whether the deal complies with existing law, including a 2022 ban on Russian energy imports. Mr Tillis raised the possibility that it could be unlawful. The senators also criticised the administration for proceeding without consulting Congress. Republican Senator John Barrasso took a different view, defending the approach as possible negotiating leverage while stressing the need to enforce existing sanctions.
On 9 October the Treasury Department issued General License 135, which authorises transactions involving the sale, delivery, unloading and importation of Russian-origin diesel for six months. It creates a legal route for certain transactions, but does not show that any shipment has arrived or that US retailers will get cheaper fuel.
Market reaction
The benchmark US diesel refining margin fell by $6.45 a barrel on 9 October, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. The ultra-low-sulphur diesel crack spread stood at $96.80 a barrel at 19:33 GMT. That suggests traders expect some extra supply, though lower wholesale margins do not guarantee an equivalent fall at the pump.
Ukraine and Russian refineries
Mr Trump later claimed that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an energy ceasefire to stop attacks on energy infrastructure. President Volodymyr Zelensky disputed this, saying Kyiv had not agreed. On 12 October he warned that Ukraine would retaliate if Russia kept attacking its electricity infrastructure, after Russian strikes disrupted power supplies as winter approached. A senior Ukrainian official indicated that Ukraine would continue to target Russian oil refineries despite the diesel deal. Continued strikes could reduce Moscow’s ability to deliver the promised volumes.
Russian refineries have already suffered significant disruption from Ukrainian drone attacks. Russia had restricted diesel exports to protect domestic supplies before partly easing those limits following the agreement. An investigation published on 6 October found that Russia had been importing refined fuel from South Korea. The Guardian, examining shipping records, found more than 176,000 tonnes were shipped in July and August. Russian fuel imports reached about 368,000 tonnes in August, with South Korea supplying 31%. The investigation identified seven tankers, three of them under Western sanctions.
The UK moves the other way
Britain announced 38 further sanctions designations on 8 October, targeting Russian oil companies, shadow-fleet tankers and groups helping Moscow evade restrictions. The Government has confirmed that a temporary licence covering some refined products made from Russian crude will expire by 1 January 2027. It will be reviewed every two weeks, with the aim of ending it sooner if possible.
Separate US-Russian talks reportedly include a multibillion-dollar deal involving Lukoil’s foreign assets. No completed agreement on those assets has been independently established. No verified evidence had emerged by 12 October that a first Russian diesel shipment had reached the United States or that the agreement had cut retail prices.
