Kemi Badenoch’s party has moved ahead of Reform UK on who the public regards as Labour’s main challenger, though the survey measures perceptions and not voting intentions.
The Conservatives have overtaken Reform UK as the party the public sees as Labour’s main opposition, according to an Ipsos poll. Some 35% named the Tories and 32% Reform, the first time the Conservatives have led on this measure in this Parliament. In May, Reform was 28 points ahead. The shift follows Kemi Badenoch’s party conference, and comes as Reform faces police inquiries over donations and a fresh racism and sexism row.
What the poll found
An Ipsos director, Keiran Pedley, said on Friday night that the “tectonic plates are shifting on the Right of British politics”. Ipsos interviewed 2,257 British adults aged 18 and over online between 9 and 13 October 2026, and weighted the responses to reflect the population. The 35% and 32% figures are the shares who identified each party as Labour’s main opposition. They are not voting intentions.
The change is especially striking among people who voted Labour in 2024:
| Survey | Conservatives seen as main opposition | Reform UK |
|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | 25% | 49% |
| August 2026 | 34% | 34% |
| October 2026 | 42% | 29% |
Among that group, the Conservatives have moved from 24 points behind Reform to 13 ahead, a 37-point reversal. It does not mean 42% of them intend to vote Conservative.
The party has put its recovery down to policy announcements, including scrapping inheritance tax on the family home, building 50,000 new prison places, and efforts to get more young people into work while cutting the benefits bill.
Perceptions of the leaders
Ipsos also asked whether opposition leaders would ever become prime minister. Some 33% said Nigel Farage was likely to, against 32% for Ms Badenoch. Some 52% said a Farage premiership was unlikely, against 50% for Ms Badenoch. In May, 50% thought Mr Farage could become prime minister, while 60% thought Ms Badenoch was unlikely to reach Downing Street. Neither is seen by a majority as a likely future prime minister.
Expectations for the next election point to Labour. Some 19% expect a Labour majority and 21% expect Labour to lead a hung parliament, so 40% expect Labour to win outright or emerge as the largest party, up from 33% in September. In the same survey, 44% thought Prime Minister Andy Burnham likely to win the next election and 33% unlikely. These measure expectations and not the probability of the result. Mr Pedley also pointed to increased confidence in Labour since Mr Burnham took over.
An earlier Ipsos poll, published on 29 September, found 44% preferred a Burnham-led Labour government to a Badenoch-led Conservative one, which drew 30%. Against a Farage-led Reform government, Labour was preferred by 52% to 28%.
Voting intention polls
Other polls suggest a closer contest. A YouGov poll of 2,393 adults on 11 and 12 October put the Conservatives two points ahead of Reform and described their figure as their highest since Ms Badenoch became leader. Reform’s 21% compares with a summer high of around 28%, according to the research notes. Pollsters do not agree on the order:
| Pollster | Labour | Conservatives | Reform |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov, 11-12 Oct | 24% | 23% | 21% |
| More in Common, 9-12 Oct | 28% | 24% | 21% |
| Find Out Now, 14 Oct | 25% | 22% | 22% |
| Trajectory, 5-14 Oct | 30% | 21% | 22% |
| Opinium, 7-9 Oct | 29% | 20% | 23% |
The differences are small enough to be affected by sampling error. Labour leads in all five, and the Conservatives are ahead of Reform in only three. The improvement relative to Reform has not clearly come at Labour’s expense.
Reform’s difficulties
Reform has recently faced police inquiries over donations and an ITV undercover investigation that included remarks by local representatives. It has said it is investigating allegations and has taken disciplinary action against some members. No single poll shows how much of its fall is due to any one scandal, Conservative policy or party conference.
