Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has extended its polling advantage to ten points, according to a new YouGov survey that will provide significant encouragement to the party ahead of next month’s local elections and comes at a moment of acute pressure on Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership.
The poll places Reform on 27 per cent — up three points from the previous week — with the Conservatives and Greens level on 17 per cent each, Labour fourth on 16 per cent, and the Liberal Democrats on 14 per cent. Restore Britain, the new party led by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe, registered three per cent. The ten-point gap represents a marked improvement for Reform after two earlier YouGov surveys this month had put its lead at just five points, suggesting the party had arrested a period of flagging momentum.
The findings land at a particularly uncomfortable moment for the Prime Minister, who is already battling the fallout from the Mandelson vetting scandal while bracing for what is widely expected to be a painful set of results at the 7 May elections for English councils, the Scottish Parliament and the Welsh Senedd. Farage has been openly encouraging voters to use the local elections as an opportunity to destabilise Starmer’s position, telling supporters to “Vote Reform. Get Starmer Out.”
The threat to Sir Keir’s leadership is not coming solely from the opposition benches. Angela Rayner, the former deputy Prime Minister, is expected to intensify the pressure this evening when she addresses the National Growth Debate in London, calling on the Government to pursue “bolder action” and present a clearer story about how it is serving ordinary people and challenging vested interests. The remarks, framed as a demand for greater urgency, amount to an implicit criticism of Sir Keir’s pace and direction since taking office.
Rayner’s intervention follows reports that she recently met Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham at her home in Ashton-under-Lyne. Both are considered credible candidates should a Labour leadership contest materialise. A poor showing at next month’s elections could accelerate pressure from Labour MPs to move against the Prime Minister.
Senior Labour MP Sarah Champion acknowledged the difficulty of Sir Keir’s position but urged the party against a leadership challenge, describing it as “absolutely the last thing we want right now.” Speaking on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, she was candid about the underlying problem. “I’ll be honest with you, people don’t like Keir on the doorstep — but it’s not over this Mandelson thing. They don’t like him personally,” she said. Champion added that voters were more preoccupied with events in Iran and rising energy costs than with the intricacies of the vetting row, and suggested the media’s focus on the scandal was reinforcing public perceptions of a Westminster bubble disconnected from everyday concerns.
