Angela Rayner has told Labour MPs that the moment to remove Sir Keir Starmer from Downing Street is “now or never,” as the embattled Prime Minister faces what could be the most critical week of his premiership — including a potential Commons vote that his own allies say would effectively function as a confidence motion.
Rayner, the former Deputy Prime Minister, is understood to have spent the weekend canvassing support among Labour backbenchers alongside her allies, according to MPs who spoke to the Mail on Sunday. “The line from Angela is that it needs to happen now otherwise this deadly stalemate will drag on forever. That it’s now or never,” one MP said.
The immediate threat to Starmer’s survival centres on a vote that Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle is considering allowing on Tuesday, when opposition parties are seeking to refer the Prime Minister to the privileges committee over claims he misled the House of Commons about the appointment of Lord Mandelson as US ambassador. If the Speaker grants the vote and Starmer loses, his allies have made clear they would treat it as an effective vote of no confidence — and that his position would become untenable.
Should Starmer fall, either as a result of cabinet pressure, a stalking horse challenge from an MP such as Armed Forces Minister Al Carns, or of his own volition following a disastrous set of local election results on 7 May, his allies expect him to announce he will remain in post until the autumn, when a leadership contest would conclude in time for the party’s annual conference.
Three candidates are already preparing to launch campaigns. Rayner is currently considered the frontrunner, Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is the most popular figure both within the party and among the wider public, and Health Secretary Wes Streeting is also preparing a bid. Each faces distinct obstacles. Burnham remains outside Parliament and is still attempting to identify a route back to Westminster in time to mount a credible campaign. Streeting is regarded by a significant portion of the membership as too closely associated with the Blairite tradition to secure enough support in a members’ ballot. Rayner’s path has been complicated by questions over her tax affairs — specifically an underpayment of stamp duty on a flat in Hove — but her allies believe she will soon be either exonerated or found to have committed a minor technical breach, clearing the way for a formal bid.
The coming days are likely to prove decisive. If the privileges committee vote goes ahead on Tuesday and Starmer survives, the momentum behind removing him may dissipate ahead of the local elections. If he loses — or if the scale of Labour’s expected losses on 7 May is as severe as polling suggests — the pressure for an immediate departure is likely to become irresistible.
