Frost is possible tonight and Tuesday could reach the low 20s, but forecasters say severe gales and more than 100mm of rain could hit parts of Scotland midweek.
The Met Office has forecast a mixed few days for the UK, with conditions swinging from “relatively balmy” to “relatively cool”. Saturday begins with showers, Sunday is expected to be dry and bright for many, and rain and wind return from Monday. Wednesday could bring severe gales across the Western Isles of Scotland. Parts of the Highlands may see more than 100mm of rainfall over 48 hours.
Saturday and Sunday
A Met Office spokesperson said: “The next few days will bring a smorgasbord of weather types, with swings from relatively balmy conditions to relatively cool. All typical of the variability we can expect with autumnal weather.”
Saturday starts with a scattering of showers moving in from the north and west. Met Office chief forecaster Andy Page said some would bring larger rainfall totals, mainly in north-western parts of the UK. Temperatures in the south, especially in longer spells between showers, will reach around 15C.
Skies are expected to clear on Saturday evening as a transient ridge of high pressure builds, bringing cooler conditions overnight. Mr Page said frost was possible in more prone spots in northern parts of the UK.
Sunday should be dry and bright in many places, with sunny spells and any remaining showers fading away. Cloud and rain are forecast to return early next week.
Monday and Tuesday
Met Office deputy chief forecaster Mike Silverstone said Monday was likely to be influenced by a frontal system moving west to east across the UK, bringing thicker cloud and some outbreaks of rain.
A deepening area of low pressure to the north-west of the UK raises the prospect of gales along coasts and over high ground in northern and western parts on Monday night. Mr Silverstone said this was partly driven by a strong and active jet stream. “Currently, however, these conditions are not likely to result in the need for severe weather warnings,” he said.
Tuesday is expected to be unsettled and windy, but unusually mild for October, particularly in eastern and south-eastern England. Temperatures are likely to reach the low 20s in the warmest spots before cooler air returns later in the day. A band of rain, some of it heavy, will cross the UK before brighter, fresher conditions arrive from the west, with some showers across Scotland and Northern Ireland. Overnight gales in the north and west should ease during Tuesday morning, although northern Scotland could see further gales through the rest of the day.
Midweek in Scotland
Wednesday has the potential for severe gales across the Western Isles, according to Met Office meteorologist Craig Snell. He said more than 100mm of rain could fall in parts of the Highlands in the 48 hours between Wednesday and Thursday.
Scotland is expected to see the most persistent wet and windy conditions. Western coasts and islands face heavy showers and strong winds, followed by further rain on Wednesday, with the wettest conditions in western and north-western upland areas.
The Scottish Environment Protection Agency’s forecast, issued on 9 October, said flooding was not expected over the following three days. That could change if the heavier midweek rainfall materialises.
If the forecast totals are reached in the Highlands, possible impacts include localised flooding, difficult driving conditions and disruption in exposed coastal areas. These are potential impacts rather than confirmation that a severe weather warning has been issued.
