Regulatory concerns have intensified after newly-created prediction market accounts earned up to $200,000 through suspiciously well-timed wagers on an Iran ceasefire mere hours before President Donald Trump’s Tuesday announcement, with lawmakers demanding restrictions preventing government officials profiting from privileged information.
Republican Congressman Blake Moore questioned the legitimacy of trades placed on Polymarket despite escalating presidential rhetoric suggesting imminent military action rather than diplomatic breakthrough. “It’s highly unlikely that these are good-faith trades; it’s much more likely that these are insiders with access to information ahead of the public,” he stated.
At least 50 accounts placed substantial “Yes” bets before Mr Trump’s approximately 6.30pm ET Truth Social post confirming a two-week truce, with many representing the accounts’ inaugural transactions on the platform.
One user created their account Tuesday around 10am ET before wagering roughly $72,000 at an average 8.8 cent price—the buy-in for betting events ranges from $0 to $1 reflecting perceived probability—before cashing out for $200,000 profit.
Another account established 6 April and trading exclusively on the ceasefire event shows $125,500 winnings, whilst a third created just 12 minutes before Trump’s announcement placed $31,908 in bets at 33.7 cents, earning estimated $48,500 profit.
The timing proves particularly suspicious given Mr Trump had issued apocalyptic warnings earlier Tuesday that “a whole civilization will die tonight” unless Iran opened the Strait of Hormuz by his deadline, providing few signals suggesting imminent diplomatic resolution.
Georgia State University professor Todd Philips, who has written extensively on prediction market regulations, warned: “This is why these markets need regulation. We can’t have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets.”
The pattern mirrors earlier suspicious trading episodes including newly-created accounts placing large wagers hours before January’s Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro capture, whilst one trader has earned $1 million since 2024 through dozens of incredibly accurate Iran war bets winning 93 per cent of five-figure wagers on unannounced military operations.
Polymarket has labelled the ceasefire contract “disputed” pending 48-hour resolution given Iran continues restricting Strait of Hormuz shipping whilst regional missile attacks persist, delaying payouts despite apparent bet successes.
The platform employs proxy smart contract wallets enabling single users creating multiple accounts, complicating efforts to identify those behind suspicious trading patterns.
Polymarket did not respond to requests for comment.
