Ministers must urgently outline emergency measures to prevent panic buying and fuel shortages as the Iran crisis threatens to slash oil supplies by up to a fifth, a former energy industry chief has warned.
Nick Butler, who served as BP’s head of strategy and advised former Prime Minister Gordon Brown, cautioned that the Government faces a “really serious potential shortage” if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and the conflict continues.
Mr Butler proposed a series of interventions to manage declining fuel availability, including restricting motorists to driving on alternate days based on their vehicle registration numbers. He also suggested employers could introduce four-day working weeks to reduce commuter traffic and ease demand.
The visiting professor at Kings College London told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that authorities have a “responsibility to calm the market” by demonstrating how they intend to manage the situation, rather than allowing what he described as a “chaotic” and “regressive” free-for-all.
“If supplies are cut by 20 per cent than someone is using 20 per cent less,” Mr Butler stated. “The Government has to protect the key sectors of the economy – food supply, health service, schools and so on – and then it has to work out how it’s going to manage the market for the rest of us.”
He emphasised that traditional rationing through coupons would not be necessary, pointing to measures already being examined internationally. “A lot of countries around the world are now beginning to look at how you gently reduce consumption,” he said, citing Far Eastern nations implementing extra weekly holidays as one approach.
According to Mr Butler, the supply problems will persist even if diplomatic solutions emerge, as military strikes have inflicted “real damage to facilities.” He noted that several refineries have been destroyed and Qatar’s gas terminal has been knocked offline, requiring extensive repairs.
While maximising North Sea oil production should be pursued, the former executive acknowledged this would not provide an immediate remedy.
Mr Butler also called for consumer protection against profiteering, advocating “forensic audits” of fuel company accounts to prevent price-gouging during the crisis.
“The Government should be setting out a plan now to manage really serious potential shortages which could develop if this conflict goes on and [the Strait of] Hormuz isn’t opened pretty soon,” he stated. “The risk is panic buying which would be terrible.”
