Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party is emerging as a genuine third-party force in Australian state politics, with new polling showing the populist movement commanding the support of one in five Victorian voters ahead of November’s state election — a development that has sent shockwaves through both major parties and prompted the Liberal Party to consider a dramatic shift in its preference strategy.
Two sources inside the Victorian Liberal Party told The Age the party was now seriously considering directing preferences to One Nation ahead of Labor at the November 28 state election, reflecting how seriously the centre-right has begun to take the threat posed by Hanson’s movement.
The shift in thinking has been driven by striking polling data. A Resolve Political Monitor survey conducted for The Age found One Nation drawing 21 per cent of the primary vote in twin surveys carried out in March and April — placing it within striking distance of Labor on 27 per cent and the Coalition on 29 per cent. The figures suggest One Nation has graduated from fringe protest vehicle to established third-party contender in Victoria, rather than being grouped with smaller minor parties.
The surge follows One Nation’s breakthrough performance in the South Australian state election earlier this year, in which the party claimed four seats including the significant gain of Narungga — a result that electrified One Nation supporters nationally and alarmed the political establishment.
Resolve founder Jim Reed said the polling reflected a broader disillusionment with Australia’s two-party system that extended well beyond traditional One Nation support bases. “One Nation voters are fed up with Labor and don’t like Jacinta Allan, but think the Liberal Party is not in a position to win or govern either,” he told The Age. “For some people, backing One Nation is a tactical choice to vote out Labor. For others, it is a Trumpian ‘drain the swamp’ mentality that seeks to get rid of both major parties. Either way, people are voting for change.” He cautioned, however, that One Nation forming government remained unlikely, while warning the party’s rise was making it harder for the Coalition to reach the numbers needed to govern and could ultimately entrench Labor in power.
The prospect of the Liberals formally preferencing One Nation has drawn fierce criticism from former Labor Premier Steve Bracks, who warned at the Sorrento Writers’ Festival last week that such a move would accelerate the decline of mainstream centre-right politics in Australia. “All that will do is legitimise One Nation and that is outrageous,” he said. “It will be the beginning of the end of the centre-right party in this country.”
