The White House is actively discussing plans for a ground operation in Iran targeting Kharg Island, the country’s most strategically vital economic asset and the origin point for around 90 per cent of its oil exports, sources have told Axios.
The proposals under consideration include occupying or blockading the island, with the aim of wresting control of Iran’s oil infrastructure and forcing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. White House adviser Jarrod Agen framed the potential operation in stark terms, telling Fox News that seizing Kharg would put “massive oil reserves in Iran out of the hands of terrorists” and remove Tehran’s ability to keep the waterway closed.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has added his voice to those calling for boots on the ground, stating publicly that any effort to bring down the Iranian regime must include a “ground component.” The US has already confirmed it is deploying 5,000 marines and sailors to the region alongside USS Tripoli, a move widely interpreted as laying the groundwork for a potential land operation.
Iran has responded to the escalating pressure with a series of threats. Following US strikes on military sites at Kharg Island — which Tehran said were launched from the United Arab Emirates — Iranian officials warned they would target oil and gas facilities in any country used as a launchpad for further attacks on the island. Iran also threatened US industrial facilities in the Middle East and urged civilians living near American-owned plants to evacuate.
The economic consequences of the conflict are already being felt on a global scale. Oil prices climbed briefly to their highest point since 2022 on Monday, while flows of crude and petroleum products have fallen by roughly 12 million barrels per day — approximately 12 per cent of global demand — as Gulf producers cut output and halted exports. Kuwait’s state oil firm confirmed its Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery had been struck by multiple drone attacks, setting several units ablaze.
The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow channel linking the Gulf with the Gulf of Oman, is the sole maritime exit for the oil and gas output of Kuwait, Iran, Iraq, Qatar and the UAE. Its continued effective closure threatens supply chains that cannot be quickly replaced, with analysts warning the impact will be felt across transport, manufacturing and energy sectors for months or potentially years.
The United Nations has warned that sustained high oil prices risk triggering a cost-of-living crisis comparable to that which followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Longer-term concerns extend further. Analytics firm Kpler estimates that around a third of the world’s fertiliser supply — including sulphur and ammonia — passes through the strait, raising fears of a global food security shock should the conflict drag on. Economists have drawn parallels with the Middle East oil shocks of the 1970s and their lasting damage to the global economy.
On the ground in Iran, Israeli strikes continued to claim senior figures within the regime. Iranian state television confirmed the death of Ali Mohammad Naini, deputy head of public relations for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, in the latest Israeli operation — one of dozens of leading officials killed since hostilities began.
