Spain’s socialist government faces mounting criticism after official analysis revealed its migrant regularisation scheme could benefit up to 1.3 million illegal residents, more than doubling Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s original estimate of 500,000 beneficiaries.
The National Centre for Immigration and Borders produced a 29-page report estimating between 750,000 and one million illegal migrants currently in Spain would apply for legal status under the programme. A further 250,000 to 350,000 asylum seekers could additionally seek residency permits, pushing the total far beyond initial government projections.
The scheme, announced in January, offers foreign nationals who can prove they have no criminal record and were living in Spain for at least five months before the start of 2026 a one-year work permit with the option to extend. The CNIF document indicates most applicants would likely be successful.
Police leaders warn the policy could overwhelm already stretched immigration units whilst providing a boost to human trafficking gangs and people smugglers. Reports of lost passports have already risen 60 per cent since the decree was announced, raising concerns about document fraud that critics say the scheme does little to prevent.
To qualify, applicants must provide a clean criminal record. However, since obtaining such documentation proves difficult in some countries, authorities are considering allowing sworn statements declaring a clean record as an alternative. Critics argue that given the apparent lack of safeguards, approval rates could climb to nearly 100 per cent, with some pointing out that documentation required under the scheme is relatively easy to forge.
The CNIF report warns the policy could trigger wider migratory consequences across Europe, forecasting “secondary movements” of up to 250,000 illegal migrants per year from other Schengen-area countries into Spain over the medium to long term. It also predicts a “shift of maritime migration routes” from the central and eastern Mediterranean toward the Iberian Peninsula, potentially increasing annual arrivals by as many as 12,000.
Large groups of migrants have already gathered outside consulates across Spain in anticipation of securing the paperwork, demonstrating the scale of demand the scheme has generated since its announcement.
The reforms have sparked fierce political reaction both domestically and internationally. Tech mogul Elon Musk clashed publicly with Sánchez on X after reposting a tweet claiming the Prime Minister was “dropping the mask” with blatant “electoral engineering” to defeat the far-right.
Far-right Vox party leader Santiago Abascal accused Sánchez of “hating Spaniards” and “accelerating an invasion.” Vox spokeswoman Pepa Millán said the policy “attacks our identity” and vowed to challenge it in the Supreme Court.
Sánchez insists the plan is necessary to address labour shortages and stimulate Spain’s struggling economy. In 2025, 32,925 undocumented immigrants arrived in Spain, representing a 46.4 per cent drop from the previous year.
The Supreme Court challenge threatened by Vox could delay or block the programme entirely, whilst the CNIF’s warnings about broader European migratory consequences may prompt diplomatic responses from other Schengen member states. Whether the scheme stabilises Spain’s labour market or triggers the broader migratory shifts across Europe that officials warn about remains dependent on parliamentary approval and the outcome of any legal challenges.
