India will overtake the European Union as the world’s third-largest energy consumer by 2030, the International Energy Firm (IEA) said on Tuesday as it forecast India representing the most significant share of energy need development over the next 20 years.
In its India Energy Outlook 2021, IEA saw primary energy usage almost doubling to 1,123 million tonnes of oil equivalent as the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) broadens to USD 8.6 trillion by 2040.
India at present is the fourth-largest international energy customer behind China, the United States and the European Union.Underpinned by “a rate of GDP growth that adds the equivalent of another Japan to the world economy by 2040″, India will overtake the European Union by 2030 to move up to the 3rd position, it said in the report.India represent almost one-quarter of worldwide energy demand development from 2019-40– the largest for any country. Its share in the development in renewable energy is the second-largest on the planet, after China, IEA said.”By 2040, India’s power system is bigger than that of the European Union, and is the world’s third-largest in terms of electrical energy generation; it also has 30 per cent more set up renewables capability than the United States,” it said.A five-fold increase in per capita cars and truck ownership will result in India leading the oil need development in the world. Also, it will end up being the fastest-growing market for gas, with need more than tripling by 2040.”India’s ongoing industrialisation becomes a major driving force for the worldwide energy economy. Over the last 3 decades, India accounted for about 10 percent of world development in industrial value-added (in PPP terms),” the report said.By 2040, India is set to represent nearly 20 per cent of international development in commercial value-added, and to lead global development in industrial last energy intake, particularly in steelmaking. The country accounts for almost one-third of global industrial energy demand development to 2040. India’s oil need is seen increasing by rise by 74 per cent to 8.7 million barrels each day by 2040 under the existing policies circumstance. The gas requirement is projected to more than triple to 201 billion cubic meters and coal need is seen increasing to 772 million tonnes in 2040 from the present 590. To fulfill its energy needs, India will be more dependent on fossil fuel imports as its domestic oil and gas production stagnates.Its net reliance on oil imports– taking into consideration both the import of petroleum and the export of oil items– increases to more than 90 per cent by 2040 from the present 75 percent as domestic usage rises a lot more than production, the report said.Natural gas import dependence increased from 20 per cent in 2010 to nearly 50 per cent in 2019 and is set to grow even more to more than 60 percent in 2040.”The dynamics look rather different for coal, where India’s need for imported coal barely returns to pre-crisis levels over the next years,” IEA said.India presently represents 16 percent of the global coal trade and numerous worldwide coal providers were counting on development in India to underpin organized export-oriented mining investments.”These expectations are now running up against India’s decision to boost domestic production, leaving relative certainty just over India’s requirement to import coking coal for its rising steel production, together with steam coal for those coastal power generation plants that have been designed to receive imported grades,” it said.IEA has anticipated combined import expense for fossil fuels tripling over the next 20 years.”Energy use (in India) has doubled because 2000, with 80 per cent of demand still being satisfied by coal, oil and strong biomass,” it said.On a per-capita basis, India’s energy use and emissions are less than half the world average, as are other essential signs such as lorry ownership, steel and cement output.”As India recovers from a COVID-induced depression in 2020, it is returning to a very dynamic duration in its. Over the coming years, millions of Indian households are set to purchase brand-new home appliances, air conditioning units and lorries,” it said.India will quickly end up being the world’s most populous nation, including the equivalent of a city the size of Los Angeles to its city population each year.”To meet development in electrical energy demand over the next twenty years, India will require to include a power system the size of the European Union to what it has now,” it said.Prior to the international pandemic, India’s energy need was forecasted to increase by almost 50 per cent in between 2019 and 2030, however growth over this duration is now closer to 35 per cent.”A broadening economy, population, urbanisation and industrialisation mean that India sees the largest increase in energy need of any country,” IEA said.