French authorities are intercepting a smaller proportion of migrants attempting to cross the English Channel than at any point this year, new figures show, as British officials prepare to travel to Paris to renegotiate the terms of a border security agreement worth close to half a billion pounds.
In the week beginning 9 March, French patrols stopped just 68 migrants from making the crossing while 357 succeeded — a success rate of 19 per cent, the worst recorded in 2026 so far. The figures represent a continued decline from an already falling baseline. When Rishi Sunak signed the original £478 million deal with France in 2023, interception rates briefly exceeded 50 per cent. By last year that figure had fallen to 35 per cent, and the trajectory has continued downward in the opening months of 2026.
Analysis by The Sun found that the first 11 weeks of this year have produced worse results than the same period in 2025. Between January and mid-March last year, 4,395 migrants arrived while 3,227 were stopped — a ratio of 1.36 arrivals for every interception. This year the ratio has widened to 1.85 to one, with 3,457 crossing successfully against just 1,865 being halted.
The deteriorating figures come as UK officials head to Paris to negotiate a new arrangement before the existing three-year deal expires next Tuesday. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is understood to be pushing for a payment-by-results model that would tie British funding directly to the number of crossings French authorities prevent, rather than simply financing patrols and infrastructure. Downing Street said it was seeking “long-term value for money” from any successor agreement.
France is said to have accepted the principle of the new approach in broad terms, though sources suggest it remains resistant to the full scale of reforms Mahmood is demanding. Britain currently contributes almost two-thirds of the £160 million annual cost of the existing arrangement, which has funded additional coastal patrols and infrastructure including plans for a detention centre.
GB News reported this week that nearly 1,000 migrants crossed the Channel in the space of seven days, including 270 on Monday alone following an improvement in weather conditions. Seventeen boats completed the crossing in total, carrying 982 people according to provisional figures.
More than 4,000 migrants have made the Channel crossing so far in 2026, following more than 41,000 arrivals via small boats last year. Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp said responsibility for the rising numbers “should lie squarely at Shabana Mahmood’s door.” A Home Office spokesman said the Government would not comment on anonymous briefings but was “building flexibility and innovation into any new deal with the French.”
