A stark regional divide has emerged between Scotland and the rest of Britain over North Sea oil extraction, with Scots significantly more opposed to drilling bans than their English and Welsh counterparts despite the Scottish Government’s ambitious 2045 Net Zero pledge.
YouGov research involving 1,217 Scottish adults and 1,919 from England and Wales revealed 45 per cent of Scots oppose prohibiting new North Sea developments compared with 37 per cent supporting such restrictions, whilst opinions south of the border remain evenly split at 39 per cent against and 38 per cent favouring bans.
The divergence proves most pronounced amongst Labour and Liberal Democrat supporters, with 48 per cent of Scottish voters backing these parties opposing new drilling prohibitions compared to fewer than one-third of their English and Welsh counterparts sharing this stance.
Conservative and Reform UK voters demonstrate strongest opposition to extraction bans, with 59 per cent of supporters from both parties rejecting restrictions on new developments.
Labour’s 2024 election manifesto commitment refusing new North Sea licences—strongly contested by Tories and Reform UK—faces resistance even amongst its own Scottish supporters, with 49 per cent of 2024 Labour voters opposing the ban alongside 52 per cent of Liberal Democrat backers.
The Scottish National Party’s position has notably softened following Middle Eastern instability, with 47 per cent of SNP supporters now opposing new development prohibitions despite previous leaders Nicola Sturgeon and Humza Yousaf explicitly opposing fields including Jackdaw east of Aberdeen and Rosebank off Shetland’s coast.
First Minister John Swinney indicated earlier this month that Iranian conflict circumstances have transformed energy security calculations, stating there exists “a much greater risk to our energy security” justifying reassessment of domestic production strategies.
When asked whether continuing oil and gas extraction or meeting Scotland’s 2045 Net Zero target—five years ahead of the UK’s 2050 deadline—held greater importance, 51 per cent of Scottish respondents prioritised extraction compared with 36 per cent favouring carbon reduction commitments.
The polling suggests significant public scepticism regarding Scotland’s ability to simultaneously maintain energy security whilst pursuing accelerated decarbonisation timelines, with economic considerations and employment concerns in oil-dependent regions potentially outweighing environmental commitments amongst substantial portions of the electorate.
The findings complicate the Scottish Government’s positioning as it attempts balancing ambitious climate pledges against energy security imperatives and economic realities facing communities reliant on North Sea industries.
