Downing Street has moved swiftly to shut down speculation of a policy reversal on immigration after Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner delivered a strikingly public challenge to one of the Government’s most contentious reforms.
The row centres on Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood’s proposal to double the waiting period for migrants already living in the UK to qualify for indefinite leave to remain — extending the current five-year route to settlement to ten years. Rayner, speaking at an event hosted by campaign group Mainstream, described the retrospective application of that change to people already residing in Britain as a “breach of trust.”
Her intervention was widely read in Westminster as more than a policy disagreement. Rayner warned that Labour had come to be seen as aligned with “the Establishment, not working people,” and called on the party to demonstrate that meaningful change “needs to be seen, it needs to be felt.” She added that the party “cannot hide” and declared there was “no safe ground” with time running short.
A spokesman for the Prime Minister responded firmly, saying Downing Street’s position “has not changed.” The Government intends to proceed with doubling the settlement route and is currently reviewing the 200,000 responses received during a consultation on applying the change to those already in the country who have not yet received settled status. “The privilege of living here forever should be earned, not automatic,” the spokesman said.
The episode has exposed fault lines within the parliamentary Labour Party. More than 100 Labour MPs have already signed a letter calling on ministers to reconsider the proposals, and Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham publicly backed Rayner’s stance, saying the party “would do well to listen” to her. Burnham, who acknowledged the frustration expressed by voters at the recent Gorton and Denton by-election — won by the Green Party’s Hannah Spencer — called for collective effort to “pull together a plan that turns the country around.”
The by-election result is part of a broader pattern giving Labour cause for concern, with the party bracing for losses to both Reform UK and the Greens in May’s local elections.
Meanwhile, betting markets have identified Rayner as the frontrunner to succeed Starmer as Labour leader, with bookmakers placing her at 9/4. A source close to the Deputy Prime Minister said she was “positioning herself as the candidate who will reconnect Labour with ordinary voters,” describing her remarks as “a statement of intent.”
The Government cited the scale of recent migration as justification for the tougher approach, noting that between 2021 and 2024 the country experienced levels of net migration that historically would have been spread across four decades. A further statement on the consultation responses is expected in due course.
