Japan’s ruling coalition faces voters on February 8 holding a single-seat majority in the Lower House, after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi dissolved parliament and called a snap election despite her term running until October 2028.
The gamble comes as the Liberal Democratic Party confronts a newly unified opposition. On January 16, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan joined with Komeito — the LDP’s coalition partner for 26 years until recently — to form the Centrist Reform Alliance, which now controls 172 seats in the 456-seat chamber.
Norihiro Yamaguchi, lead Japan economist at Oxford Economics, warned that without Komeito’s organisational support, a considerable number of LDP candidates could struggle at the ballot box.
The LDP and its current junior coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, hold a combined 230 seats, with three independents voting alongside the ruling bloc.
Takaichi is seeking to exploit a significant gap between her personal standing and that of her party. While NHK recorded her approval rating at 62 per cent last week, with other polls placing her support between 70 and 78 per cent, the LDP’s rating stands at just 29.7 per cent.
Sam Jochim, economist at Swiss private bank EFG, said the Prime Minister was taking a risk, noting that her popularity may not translate into gains for a less popular party facing a united opposition.
A stronger mandate would allow Takaichi to project greater authority in meetings with foreign leaders, including a potential summit with President Donald Trump as early as March, Jochim added. He suggested she may also be seeking to capitalise on her popularity before tensions with China begin to affect public sentiment.
Relations with Beijing have cooled following Takaichi’s statement in parliament on November 8 that a Chinese attempt to seize Taiwan by force could prompt Japan’s Self-Defence Forces to intervene. China has since imposed export controls on dual-use items to Japan and advised its citizens against travelling there.
At a press conference on Monday, Takaichi said she was putting her future as Prime Minister on the election and asked voters to decide whether they could entrust the management of the nation to her.
Polling day is set for February 8.
